Forecasting the future with AI: No crystal ball required!
Researchers at the University of California, Berkeley have developed an AI forecasting system that's giving the age-old wisdom of the crowd a run for its money.
By using GPT-4 with a technique called "retrieval-augmented reasoning", this system can predict future events with eerie accuracy, outperforming human predictions.
The catch? Its strength lies in analyzing a sweet spot of ~10 relevant articles. Too much information, and its predictions start to wobble.
The researchers discuss the technology's potential to aid in policy and decision-making.
However, I have some ideas for "less favorable applications"...
Would you like to share your ideas in the comments?
The researchers: Danny Halawi, Kaixiang(Fred) Zhang, Yueh Han (John) Chen, Jacob Steinhardt
The link to the research - https://arxiv.org/pdf/2402.18563v1
